Free trade sits at the top of Singapore's foreign policy list, and it seems everyone is getting signed up. So what does Singapore's most respected political figure, Lee Kuan Yew have to say about all of this? NADIA CAMERON reports on the future prospects of the republic from one of the 20th century's most prominent statesmen.
DESPITE HIS considerable age, Lee Kuan Yew still holds plenty of clout and has influential viewpoints on all things Asia. And what's more, he's not afraid to express them.
One of the region's most longstanding and respected political leaders, Lee has an admirable background. Prime Minister of Singapore from 1959 to 1990, Lee has witnessed British colonial rule decline throughout the Asia Pacific region, and led his country from a self governing state and member of the Federation of Malaysia to an independent, republic nation. Through cunning, charm and wit, Lee's master strokes have developed his country into what is now Asia's fastest growing nation.
Born in Singapore in 1923, Lee was educated at Raffles College, Singapore, and Cambridge, England, where he read law. After four years of practise as a solicitor, Lee helped found the People's Action Party (PAP) in 1954. In 1959, PAP won the general election and Lee became Singapore's first Prime Minister. Under his premiership, the party won eight consecutive general elections. Having held the position for 31 years, Lee resigned in 1990. He then took the newly created post of Senior Minister, where his strong political background and international distinction continue to influence the Asian region and Singapore's foreign policy today.
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In both his long tenure as Prime Minister and as Senior Minister, Lee has had a close rapport with Australia. His most recent visit was at the Asia Society Australasia Centre's annual dinner in Sydney this month. His speech was prompted by the launch of the second of his memoirs, From Third World to First, an extensive autobiographical took into Singapore's radical development.
Looking all of his 77 years and walking meekly to the podium at the dinner, Lee's demeanour was anything but dynamic. His speech on "East Asia and the Pacific in the 21st Century", however, was a far cry from being outdated.
Lee's most fervent point was that global free trade and alliances between nations in the Asia Pacific region were paramount to the success of the region. For Singapore, this means pushing agreements between itself and other APEC nations.
"It is our long-term interest to press ahead with trade liberalisation," Lee said.
Concerned with the evident growth of China, South East Asian nations need to complete efforts of creating free trade areas if economic prosperity is to be obtained. To this end, Lee espoused that dream long held by many in Australia -- a large scale South East Asian free trade area that includes Australia.
"To meet the economic challenge of China's attractiveness to foreign investments, the ASEAN countries will have to combine their markets in an ASEAN free trade area," Lee said.
One way of achieving this, he believes, would be by establishing a new regional group of North and South East Asian countries within the APEC framework. Spurred on by the delay in development of free trade agreements (FTA) in AFTA-CER (ASEAN Free Trade Area - Closer Economic Relations) talks, this group would be able to renew free trade efforts throughout the region, Lee said. It would also provide a way to deal with the recent widening of APEC's constituents to include the Russian Federation, Chile and Peru.
"It will be useful to have a subgroup within APEC of East Asians and Australasians, just like the sub-group on the eastern side of the Pacific of US, Canada and Mexico," Lee said.
Effectively, the group would be "ASEAN plus three in North East Asia, plus two in Australasia".
"Such a group can better advance the common interests of the western side of the Pacific in trade liberalisation and in resisting any resurgence of protectionism," he said.
Australia and New Zealand present in such a regional sub-group, Lee added, could bring the US around to free trade in the Asian region "more by persuasion than argument".
The failure to bring the AFTA-CER agreements into fruition was, for Lee, predictable. Established in 1995 by ASEAN Economic Ministers and Ministers from Australia and New Zealand (the CER countries), the initiative was aimed at facilitating trade and investment flows between the two regions. Last year, Ministers agreed that the two regions should took into taking economic integration a step further, through a regional trade agreement between the countries represented in both organisations.
The dissimilar positions, both in industry development and financial stability held by the 10 ASEAN nations, however, have made recent expectations of agreed free trade conditions difficult to fulfil.
To combat this, Lee strongly supports the furthering of bilateral agreements.
"Although Australian-ASEAN relations are partially stalled, there is no reason why Australia should not build on bilateral relations and consolidate its position with the other countries that share its world view," he said.
This at least appears to be Singapore's current strategy. Over the past 12 months, Singapore has initiated bilateral negotiations with four APEC countries, including New Zealand, Japan, Mexico and Australia. Discussions have also been held with the US, and a FTA is proposed between the two by the end of the year. Plans are afoot to engage additional bilateral agreements with Canada, Chile and South Korea.
Hot on the heels of the New Zealand/Singapore free trade agreement, the Australian and Singapore FTA will aim to cover as wide a range of industries as possible - including Australia's sensitive textile, clothing and footwear and motor vehicle sectors.
"We will aim to put everything in the agreement," John Howard, Australia's Prime Minister said upon the announcement of the deal.
"We both take the view that although the ideal trade route is through a multilateral form, the ideal trade route here in our part of the world is to make certain that the APEC countries continue to move towards the Bogor goals.
"There is no reason why, along the way, if you have a free trade opportunity between two or more countries, then we shouldn't take hold of it."
Up until now, Australia has rejected bilateral agreements in favour of a multilateral approach. It is believed the latest agreement is an attempt to keep Australia from being left out "in the cold". The new deal will be Australia's second such arrangement with a nation after New Zealand.
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Singapore's support for free trade does indeed appear unshakeable. Like his Australian counterpart, current Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong is hopeful these new agreements will be the beginnings of advancing free trade and will encourage trilateral agreements and regional trade accords.
"We want to try and promote a similar kind of FTAs among other countries in APEC, and over time, we will have an APEC-wide FTA and, of course, remain focused on the World Trade Organisation new round," he said.
One of the potential arrangements for larger-scale free trade favoured by Goh is the Pacific - Five Proposal currently being discussed at APEC. This would see a free trade partnership established between Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, Chile and eventually, the US.
In the meantime, Goh said, countries who are wishing to expand into free trade agreements should not be held back from doing so. "Those who can run faster," he said, "should run faster. They should not be restrained by those who won't run at all."
In the meantime, Lee Kuan Yew will be sure to extend his political clout to the benefit of Singapore and in the interests of free trade. And with Lee's son, Lee Hsien Loong, tipped to be a leading contender to become Singapore's next Prime Minister, the Lee dynasty is set to continue.
Lee Kuan Yew on the future of the region
"China will be a formidable player in the region. No combination of other East Asian economies -- Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and ASEAN will be able to balance China."
"Because of North East Asia's aggressive liberalisation and deregulation, this differentiation between South East and North East Asia is now gone. As a result, foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows into North East Asia have risen strongly, and those to South East Asia have slowed."
"When most Australian realise the significant of present trends, and Australia's place in the scheme of things, their political parties will find that their policies toward Asia will tend to converge."
"There is no standard or common view of Australia amongst South East Asians."
"By 2040, China and Japan's combined GDP will exceed that of the United States. These developments will shift the economic centre of gravity of the world from the Atlantic to the Pacific."
"Until Indonesia's leaders restore order in Indonesia, investor confidence will be weak."
"Singapore and Australia have a similar strategic view of the future. And we do not have conflicts on economic issues."
COPYRIGHT 2000 First Charlton Communications Pty Ltd.
COPYRIGHT 2000 Gale Group
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