Asia will become world's largest economic (2005)

Lee says Asia will become world's largest economic region in 50 yrs
Asian Political News, Dec 12, 2005

SINGAPORE, Dec. 9 Kyodo

Singapore's elder statesman Lee Kuan Yew has projected that Asia will become the world's largest economic region in 50 years, powered by China and India, and is well-disposed to achieving a giant trading bloc.

''China, India and Southeast Asia will grow faster than NAFTA or the EU, in the next 50 years,'' Lee, currently minister mentor in the country's Cabinet, said in a recent interview in his office ahead of the first East Asia Summit that will be held in Kuala Lumpur next Wednesday.

The gap between Asia versus Europe and America will close, he said in the interview with Kyodo News. ''By 2050, the center of gravity will be in Asia, maybe sooner. It will be the biggest single economic region in the world.''
Most Popular Articles
in News
Naked boys vs. naked ...
Black Women White ...
Tisha Campbell-Martin ...
How Tyler Perry rose ...
Weddings of the year

The 82-year-old Lee, who was prime minister from 1959 until 1990 and is regarded as Singapore's founding father, said the region has huge potential to achieve a largely economic-based East Asian community in future.

Such an economic bloc would be so compelling that Japan and China should be willing to put aside their deep-seated antagonism over the interpretation of Japan's military aggression in China before and during World War II and jump onto the bandwagon.

''In the end it does not depend upon whether China and Japan agree or do not agree, it depends upon the economic advantage of an East Asian trading community. Once it is formed, does China want to stay out? Does Japan want to be left out?''
Advertisement


''I believe this process is driven not by the political considerations alone, but more by economic imperatives. It's driven by globalization that results from technological advances,'' Lee said. ''Therefore, it makes sense for the ASEAN region to come together.''

The creation of an East Asian Community is expected to be discussed at the East Asia Summit involving leaders from 16 countries, namely the 10 ASEAN member nations, Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. It is also on the agenda of a summit meeting of leaders of ASEAN and Northeast Asian countries, called the ''ASEAN-plus-three summit.''

Lee said the spate of free trade agreements currently being negotiated between ASEAN and countries such as China, Japan, South Korea and India are already sowing the seeds of a single trading bloc in the region.

''So I see a growing network of FTAs -- bilateral, multilateral. Eventually they will link up East and South Asia through their ties with Southeast Asia,'' Lee said.

Leaders of ASEAN and the three Northeast Asian countries had already agreed at the ''ASEAN-plus-three-summit'' last year to endorse the formation of an expert group to conduct a study on the feasibility of an East Asian Free Trade Area for the region.

Lee emphasized that Asian countries are likely to cooperate economically rather than politically, and so the proposed East Asian community cannot be expected to mirror the European Union.

''I believe the key countries in Asia will come together economically, though not politically.''

''It is not easy to have an East Asia Community like the European Community. It would take many decades because all the countries are at different levels of growth.''

He said that China and India together are expected to account for 40 percent of the world's economy in 40 years, regaining their former economic glory of two centuries ago when they also dominated the world economy because of their large populations.

In particular, China will dwarf Japan economically and emerge as the political leader in Asia by 2030, he said.

''China looks potentially a very big economy. If she continues on this path, by 2030, her economy will be bigger than Japan's,'' Lee said. And ''as a leader in the political/diplomatic field, I think in 20, 30 years, China's weight cannot be denied.''

One example of China's fast-growing influence is its recent diplomatic strategy against the resolution by Japan, India, Brazil and Germany -- the so-called Group of Four nations aspiring to permanent membership on the U.N. Security Council.

However, Lee believes that Japan will continue to retain its technological lead in Asia, which should be positive for the region.

''In technology, in the quality of the products and the innovation of products, Japan is still the leader. If Japan can keep that up, its role is a very important one for the rest of Asia, not just Southeast Asia.''

COPYRIGHT 2005 Kyodo News International, Inc.
COPYRIGHT 2005 Gale Group